Tuesday 10 December 2019

Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir: Getting back through war or pressure games?

So many talks going around now a days about PoJK, especially after remarks from current Home minister. He mentioned PoJK twice in parliament one time during debate on abrogation of Article 370 and 35A and second time yesterday referring how we share 106 Km long border with Afghanistan through PoJK. Any reference made in Parliament by ruling HM is definitely carries a message. I am putting my opinion about how we should take back PoJK!
While many of us think about war we see it as just few shots fired across and that's it but war is fought through many channels, involves many layers and costs more than we can imagine tangibly and intangibly. For a developing nation like us war should always come last on cards. Many will ask that then how we claim to take back our territory illegally occupied by Pakistan? Answer is simple for those who understand the dynamics of global politics, diplomacy and war games. So which are the options we have on cards? I am just putting few which I think will clarify our position as nation and which are most suitable and which options are not so good for us.
1. All out war: Many in general always thinks about all out war with Pakistan can only be the option to end the menace on our western border. Well this option was good till 1984 when Pak was not having nuclear arsenal. Even post Balakot strikes Pak remained silent as India declared that it was non military operation meaning that it was just on terror camps and has nothing to do with Pak as a nation, this was the reason behind silence from Pak and just little sortie on second day we have seen. In situation of all out war this nation can go to any extent if they find themselves in losing situation (Which is inevitable). Also to note that China after seeing losing grip may open eastern front which is not good at all for our strategic interests. This war may wipe out Pak completely but the cost we have to pay is very huge indeed far far huge than we can even imagine. Loss of millions of lives and economical backwardness will put us 2-3 decade behind other nations. Also to add to this is that even if we get back PoJK it might be still infected with radical jihadists, this will only add to our problems. So war as of now is not a good option to go with.
2. Economic pressure, trade sanctions: In current scenario no nation can hold too long with weaker economy, especially when country is made upon utopian dreams and got nothing even after 7 decades. Nightmare of Pakistan is same. They also know that they survived this long only because of heavy loans they got to create hurdles for India, as big section of world wants to keep India as developing nation and busy in fights. This is not conspiracy theory, this is proven fact. Even Brits had same vision when they had given more air to the idea of Pakistan. So back to current scenario, growing power and lucrative market tags for India going into our favor and at the same time this is the scenario which Pak never wants to see. If we are successful in squeezing our enemy economically it will simply go back to original idea of Pakistan which is hardcore islamic state and that would be the moment we can start playing our diplomatic games.
3. Diplomatic channels and strategic pressure: This is the way forward in current scenario. Abrogation of 370 and 35A, Citizenship amendment bill and fresh elections in UT of J&K will give some tough times to Pak army as their real character will come out in front of common Pakistani, this will give boost to freedom movement based on racial identity e.g. Balochs, Sindhis, Pashtuns, Muhajirs, etc. All of them asking for their own separate state which is big plus for us. Along with few strikes from us to the terror infrastructure will open up all fissures in Paki state which will lead to complete disintegration. This will create domino effect and with lesser fight we can easily get back PoJK. Another advantage in this process is that there will be no direct aggression with any other state, this will create more pressure on Pakistan psychologically as they have habit to rely on someone so when they find themselves into such condition their top brass will rub like headless chickens and that will be the best time for India to give a surgical blow.  This is slow process but results achieved through this are sustainable and we have lesser loss in this.
In conclusion I would like to tell that war games are not just visible through number of soldiers/terrorists we kill, war is multi dimensional aspect of governance and it requires lot of patience and lot of dedication. What as citizen we can do is that to support governments (be it any party) on any positive step taken to weaken the enemy state and when called for to contribute for nation do it without hesitation. I am pretty confident if current course of diplomacy continues we can get back our land with lesser bloodshed and minimal effect on our economy. Also note that few things are unpredictable so if anything else happens suddenly don't be surprised!!!